Dave’s Trading Diary – Entry Signals So Close You Can Taste It

 See The Trading Diary Here

Hi guys,

Well company reporting is in full swing, and things are about as exciting as it gets!  As I mentioned in this weeks Market Watch, you can tell by the way the market is jumping around that no one really knows what they are doing.  This kind of price action is usually seen at market tops or market bottoms – so I’m keeping a close eye on which way it breaks out.  This is why it’s essential for you to have a method that you trust and have tested to know it works. 

As usual though, the price charts are telling the story, even when the economists, brokers or financial planners can’t.  In fact many stocks are so close to an upward breakout you can taste it – close, but not yet confirmed.  As soon as we get confirmation, I’ll post it here of course.

So how is it that the price charts are telling us the story?

1: Almost all of the stocks that had disappointing earnings so far were ALREADY in a down trend according to the rules I use (think TLS and CPU).

2: Almost all of the stocks that have had solid buy signals have come out with decent earnings as well.

Getting back to basics is what it’s all about.  And using a simple, powerful, tested method.

But what about individual stocks this week? 

Well as I mentioned, there are a lot of close signals, but no more confirmed as yet.  In the mean time my current holdings RIV is still going – no Dow Theory exit as yet.  IGO and GUD still above their recent buy prices.  BKN and ABP are the only two easing off a little bit – still not near their stop loss, but not taking off as I’d like.  The best I can do is let the trades pan out – they either go up or get stopped out – no mess, no fuss.

IPL, DJS, MGX and PNA are holding up nicely despite a shaky week.  Trends do take time to mature, so patience is the name of the game here.

Looking forward to a busy couple of weeks ahead as these signals come to fruition!

Happy trending,

Dave

August 15, 2010  Tags: , , , ,   Posted in: Dave's Trading Diary  No Comments

Market Watch Weekly – ABC Corrections on All Ords and Hang Seng, Plus Buy and Sell Signals

By Dave McLachlan

Click below for the latest Market Watch Video (if you can’t see the video, click the link above) - See Terms Here

UPDATE:

It seems like the tiniest bit of news can send the market into a panic or an uproar at the moment.  One minute it’s up, one minute it’s down.  This signals one thing and one thing only – investors don’t know what the hell to expect from earnings this year and so are taking their cues from any piece of information they can.  As most of you will already know, this can lead to disasterous results.

So far it’s been a mixed bag, with some companies reporting nice profits (CCL, Coca Cola) and some posting dismal failures (TLS, Telstra), and then some posting gains, but not big enough (like NAB, National Australia Bank).  Lots more results to come out this week, so maybe the market will get some traction then!

In the mean time, however, the charts tell us the story we need to know.  As William Gann says – we should be using all of our rules all of the time.  This week’s video is no exception, with Elliott Wave rules, Trend Line rules, ABC Corrections, and of course the buy and sell signals using these methods!  We hold nothing back, so check it out.

But most of all, enjoy and have fun!

As always, thanks heaps for checking out ASX Market Watch – Subscribe in the top right hand corner for weekly updates! 

Of course please do your own due diligence - a great place to start is the free trading and investment course on this site.  Check out my personal Trading Diary if you want to see me practice what I preach. 

Happy trending,

Dave

August 14, 2010  Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,   Posted in: Free Trading Course Lesson Backlog  No Comments

Dave’s Trading Diary – Sometimes You Just Gotta Follow The Rules

 Buys this week: ABP, IPL, PNA, MGX

Hi guys,

It’s not always easy buying into shares when the overall market looks shaky, or the news isn’t supporting your point of view.  It’s times like those that you just have to realise that not every trade will be a winner – and that if you have a trading plan that has been tested positively over a decent period of time, this is the most you can do – the rest is up to the market. 

It’s also times like these you can take solace in the words of Warren Buffet:  “My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror”.

But what about individual stocks this week?  Well our long held RIV is still kicking along nicely.  I’m sticking this one into a longer time frame now – a Dow Theory exit at around $9.40 will get me out of this one.  Until then, happy to hold.

IGO is also still doing well after our buy at $5.35.  GUD doing well after the Dow Theory entry last week, and BKN holding up a little above our buy price.  I have a really good “feeling” about BKN – unfortunately my good “feelings” are not always right.  Luckily it still had a Dow Theory entry last week so I can just follow the trading plan!

This week, risking 1% on IPL – after a close above its trend line and two previous troughs.  Good or bad, IPL seems to trend nicely, and it has a lot of large holders to boot.  MGX is a Dow Theory entry on a weekly chart.  ABP is a Dow Theory entry on a weekly chart and PNA is a Dow Theory entry that is embarrasingly late.  It looks strong so I’m happy to buy still, almost 10% later.  All stops are below the previous troughs.

Like I said last week – it’s all about getting back to basics.  Solid, tested rules and results.  Not every one will be a winner – and that is why we use solid money management and of course, our faithful stop loss.  And of course you are smart enough to know that these are merely my trades – not recommendations in any way.  See Terms here.

It’s hard not to love the market.  Always different, always a challenge, and if you have a solid, tested plan you can sit back, relax, and let that plan do the work while others get flustered over a bad news day.

Happy trending to all!

Dave

August 8, 2010   Posted in: Dave's Trading Diary  No Comments

Market Watch Weekly – Dow’s Predictions on All Ords, FTSE, and Elliott Wave Prediction Coming True

By Dave McLachlan

Click below for the latest Market Watch Video (if you can’t see the video, click the link above).

UPDATE:

A massive week this week guys!  The market has done exactly what we thought it would over the last few weeks, which is always nice.  This is because the All Ords, FTSE, and Dow Jones had crossed above their trend line and made a higher trough and higher peak – giving us a short term up trend.

As a bonus this week we look at another part of Charles Dow’s theory – his 3 waves and where we are in the cycle – and what to expect in the future based on Dow’s Theory.  Really great stuff!

And finally, we look at the Elliott Wave prediction on the Hang Seng which is coming to fruition.  As John “Hannibal” Smith from the A Team would say: “I love it when a plan comes together!”

Check out the video below, leave comments if you like it and subscribe in the top right!

As always, thanks heaps for checking out ASX Market Watch – Subscribe in the top right hand corner for weekly updates! 

Of course please do your own due diligence - a great place to start is the free trading and investment course on this site.  Check out my personal Trading Diary if you want to see me practice what I preach. 

Happy trending,

Dave

August 7, 2010  Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,   Posted in: Market Watch Weekly  No Comments

Dave’s Trading Diary – Reporting Season, The Best Time For Signals Both Good And Bad

 Buys this week: David Jones (DJS), Bradken (BKN), GUD Holdings (GUD).

Hi guys,

What a fantastic time of year reporting season is.  For most of the year a company’s share price is based on speculation or other external factors like weather, consumer sentiment, interest rates etc.  But twice a year we get the company’s actual results and how well or badly they have really been doing.

This also means that entry or exit signals around this time are much better – as they are more often based on  these actual results and whether the market likes them or not!  So no doubt over the next few weeks we will see some fantastic new entry and exit signals.

How about individual shares at the moment?

Since last week our only two open trades, IGO and RIV are going well – IGO up marginally and RIV still above its trend line.

This week I’ve added DJS, BKN and GUD to the buy list after getting entry signals on a weekly chart.  This is in line with my philosophy of getting back to basics, and following the system to the letter.  After all - what good is having a system if we don’t use it?  My only concern, of course, is that the All Ords index is in a sideways to down trend.  Check out the diary for full details like the signal used, the amount of risk, and of course stop losses.

Looking at stocks in general also, there are more stocks in a down trend than in an up trend at the moment.  The overall market is refusing to go up or down consitently though – instead preferring to meander mostly sideways over the last 10 months.  This doesn’t mean that there will be no entry signals – individual stocks can still outperform or underprform the market.

In addition to the new video course I’m working on (it will be available very soon with new signals and tools, and it’s free), I’m also working on a system for shorting the market – just in case this sideways marathon turns bearish.  Best to be prepared!

Happy trending guys,

Dave

August 1, 2010   Posted in: Dave's Trading Diary  3 Comments